Forecast Category
A Forecast Category is the classification Salesforce applies to each Opportunity Stage to indicate how confidently the deal is expected to close.
Definition
A Forecast Category is the classification Salesforce applies to each Opportunity Stage to indicate how confidently the deal is expected to close. Standard Forecast Categories are Omitted (excluded from forecast), Pipeline (in flight but not committed), Best Case (optimistic estimate), Commit (promised to make the number), and Closed (already won). Each Opportunity Stage maps to one Forecast Category, and Collaborative Forecasts aggregates opportunities by category to show the sales team's expected revenue at multiple confidence levels.
Forecast Category is the bridge between deal-level Stage data (which sales reps maintain) and forecast-level confidence (which leadership consumes). A typical sales process has 6 to 8 stages, and the Forecast Category mapping collapses those stages into 4 confidence buckets. The mapping is configured once in Setup, applies org-wide for every Opportunity, and rarely changes. Tuning the mapping is one of the highest-leverage decisions in Sales Cloud configuration: the same pipeline data can read as "on track" or "in trouble" depending on which stages map to Commit vs Best Case vs Pipeline.
How Forecast Categories aggregate opportunities for sales forecasting
The five standard categories
Salesforce ships five Forecast Categories. Omitted excludes the opportunity from the forecast entirely (used for dead deals that should not influence the number). Pipeline counts the deal as in-flight but not committed. Best Case counts it as a confident upside (the deal is likely but not certain). Commit counts it as part of the number the sales team has promised. Closed counts already-won deals against quota attainment. The five categories form a confidence ladder from "ignore" to "won". Customizing the labels is not supported; the system uses the standard names.
How Stage maps to Category
Each Opportunity Stage has a Forecast Category assigned in the Stage record. Setup, Object Manager, Opportunity, Stage, edit each stage and pick its Forecast Category. A typical mapping: Prospecting and Qualification map to Pipeline. Proposal and Negotiation map to Best Case. Verbal Agreement maps to Commit. Closed Won maps to Closed. Closed Lost maps to Omitted. The mapping is a many-to-one: multiple stages can roll up to the same category. The category is what the Forecast UI aggregates against, not the stage itself.
Forecast UI aggregation
Collaborative Forecasts groups opportunities by Forecast Category and sums the Amount field across each group. A sales manager sees their team's Pipeline total, Best Case total, Commit total, and Closed total side by side. Each total includes deals from every stage mapped to that category. The Best Case column typically includes Commit + Pipeline at the optimistic level; Commit is the leadership-facing promise. Different orgs interpret the columns differently, but the underlying aggregation logic is the same: sum Opportunity Amount grouped by category.
Manager adjustments and the Forecast Adjustment object
Managers can adjust the Forecast Category totals for their team without changing individual Opportunity records. A manager who thinks two reps are sandbagging their Commit can manually raise the team's Commit total. The adjustment shows in the Forecast UI with attribution. The adjustment lives on the ForecastingAdjustment object, queryable through SOQL for audit trail. Adjustments propagate up the forecast hierarchy: a regional VP can adjust a regional manager's commit, which then rolls up to the company-wide forecast.
The Probability field and its relationship to Category
Each Opportunity Stage also has a Probability percentage (0 to 100). Probability is a deal-level confidence score, separate from Forecast Category. The two are related but not identical. Probability drives the Expected Revenue field on an opportunity (Amount times Probability). Forecast Category drives the rollup in the Forecast UI. A stage with 80% probability is often mapped to Commit; a stage with 30% probability is often mapped to Pipeline. The mapping is admin-configurable and does not have to match probability exactly.
Customizing the mapping without breaking history
Forecast Category mappings can be changed at any time. The change applies prospectively to forecast aggregations; historical Forecast snapshots are not retroactively recategorized. A re-mapping in mid-quarter creates a discontinuity in the Best Case and Commit totals visible in the trend charts. Most companies change the mapping only at quarterly boundaries or during annual planning cycles. Mid-quarter changes are not technical risk; they are political risk.
Forecast Category and Opportunity Splits
When Opportunity Splits is enabled (multiple reps share credit on one deal), each split inherits the parent Opportunity's Forecast Category. A deal in Commit splits 60/40 between Rep A and Rep B; both reps see 60% and 40% of the deal in their respective Commit columns. This is what enables team selling without double counting. The Splits feature requires explicit configuration on the Opportunity object; without it, Forecast Category applies only to the single Opportunity Owner.
Configuring Forecast Category mapping for sales stages
Configuring Forecast Categories means editing each Opportunity Stage record and picking the right category. The work is quick (5 to 10 stages, one minute each) but consequential. The mapping decision shapes how leadership reads the pipeline for the rest of the year.
- Open Opportunity Stages
Setup, Object Manager, Opportunity, Fields & Relationships, Stage. Click the Stage field to see the list of picklist values, each with its Forecast Category.
- Review the current mapping
For each stage, note the current Forecast Category. Identify the gaps: Prospecting on Best Case, Negotiation on Pipeline, late-stage on Omitted. Wrong mappings distort the forecast.
- Decide the target mapping
Pick stages for each category. Standard pattern: early stages on Pipeline, middle stages on Best Case, late stages on Commit, closed stages on Closed, lost stages on Omitted.
- Update each stage's category
Edit each stage picklist value, pick the new Forecast Category, save. The change applies immediately to new and existing opportunities.
- Confirm the Forecast UI reflects the change
Open the Forecast tab as a user with active opportunities. Confirm the deal counts in each category match expectations. Cross-check against a manual SOQL query if needed.
- Document the mapping for the sales team
Publish the Stage-to-Category mapping in a Knowledge Article or Trailhead-internal training. Reps need to know how their stage selection affects the forecast their manager sees.
Excludes the opportunity from forecast aggregations. Used for Closed Lost or dead deals that should not influence the number.
Counts the deal as in flight but not committed. Aggregated as the broadest signal of potential.
Counts the deal as an optimistic estimate. Typically late-mid-stage deals likely to close.
Counts the deal as part of the promised number. Leadership-facing confidence level.
Counts already-won deals against quota attainment. The Won stage maps here.
Stage-level percentage that drives Expected Revenue. Related to but distinct from Forecast Category.
- Forecast Category mapping changes apply prospectively, not retroactively. Historical Forecast snapshots are not recategorized. Plan mapping changes at quarterly boundaries.
- Closed Lost should map to Omitted, not Pipeline. The most common mapping mistake is leaving Closed Lost in Pipeline, which inflates the pipeline number and confuses leadership.
- Forecast Category labels (Omitted, Pipeline, Best Case, Commit, Closed) are not customizable. The five standard names are hard-coded into the platform.
- Manager-initiated adjustments propagate up the forecast hierarchy. A change at the regional manager level flows to the VP and CRO view. The audit trail tracks the chain.
- Opportunity Splits inherit Forecast Category from the parent opportunity. Each split rep's forecast column reflects their split percentage, not the full deal Amount.
Trust & references
Straight from the source - Salesforce's reference material on Forecast Category.
- Forecast CategoriesSalesforce Help
- Collaborative Forecasts OverviewSalesforce Help
- Customize Opportunity StagesSalesforce Help
About the Author
Dipojjal Chakrabarti is a B2C Solution Architect with 29 Salesforce certifications and over 13 years in the Salesforce ecosystem. He runs salesforcedictionary.com to help admins, developers, architects, and cert/interview candidates sharpen their fundamentals. More about Dipojjal.
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