On the Opportunity object, each Stage value is associated with both a Probability (a number 0-100% representing typical close likelihood) and a Forecast Category (one of: Pipeline, Best Case, Commit, Closed, Omitted).
Setup -> Object Manager -> Opportunity -> Fields -> Stage. For each picklist value, you set Probability (used by formulas like Expected_Revenue = Amount * Probability / 100) and Forecast Category (used by Collaborative Forecasts to roll up amounts).
Default mapping:
- Stages early in the pipeline: Forecast Category = Pipeline, Probability low.
- Mid-stages: Forecast Category = Pipeline or Best Case.
- Late stages (verbal commitment): Forecast Category = Commit, Probability ~80-90%.
- Closed Won: Forecast Category = Closed, Probability 100%.
- Closed Lost / unqualified: Forecast Category = Omitted, Probability 0%.
How they're used:
- Reports filter on Forecast Category, not Stage directly, when summarising pipeline.
- Forecasts (the feature) sum Amount per Forecast Category per period.
- Expected Revenue is a built-in formula:
Amount * Probability. Useful for risk-weighted pipeline reports.
Common admin tasks:
- When the sales team adds new stages or splits existing ones, you update the Probability and Forecast Category mappings.
- When forecast categories drift from sales reality (reps committing deals that are still labelled Pipeline), align with sales leadership and fix the stage's Forecast Category.
A common confusion: editing a stage's Probability after deals have been created. Existing opportunities keep their Probability snapshot at the time of stage entry — Salesforce does not retroactively recompute. Only new opportunities entering that stage pick up the new Probability.